Question: The IHME projection model for COVID — which you so diligently analyzed earlier this month — showed that DC’s deaths per day would peak around April 15/16 and then begin to decline. Has that been the case, and does that then make the CHIME model the winner here (for now)?

Answer: Thanks for remembering my earlier post (Q&A of 4/5)!

IHME’s estimate for DC’s peak deaths was off. Sadly, DC experienced it’s highest mortality yet last week, and this week is on track to be even higher (Table 1). Additionally, the proportion of tests that are positive continues to increase (>21%), albeit at a slower rate than earlier in the epidemic (Table 2). And the cumulative case fatality rate is also increasing (4.8%). If you want to compare these numbers to earlier in the month, please check out the Q&A from 4/12. Unlike New York (Table 3), DC is not yet on the other side of the curve.

Because it’s late and time for dinner, I’m going to take a pass on talking about modeling winners… for now!

[data from: covidtracking.com]

Table 1. Weekly COVID-19 Deaths in Washington, DC

Table 2. COVID-19 Deaths, Cases, and Tests in Washington, DC as of 4/28

Table 3. COVID-19 Deaths, Hospitalizations, and Tests in New York as of 4/28