Question: Our two kids just tested positive. They are both <5, so unvaccinated. And their symptoms so far are totally manageable. My wife and I are vaccinated + boosted. Any idea of the likelihood that we’ll become infected too?
Answer: I’m sorry that your kids are sick, and I’m relieved to know that their symptoms are manageable. When it comes to your question, there’s some recently published research that provides some insight. Just this Friday, CDC’s MMWR published a study examining household transmission dynamics during omicron, SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) Variant Transmission Within Households — Four U.S. Jurisdictions, November 2021–February 2022. The study finds that rates of household transmission are quite high, even among vaccinated and boosted household members. As you might expect, attack rates are highest among unvaccinated household members. Attack rates are also higher in households where the index patient is ages 0-4; this is likely because isolation, masking, and other protective measures are far more difficult (and in some cases impossible) to utilize. Additionally, the study found higher attack rates when the index patient was unvaccinated. Here are some of the relevant findings of attack rates among household contacts who were:
- Vaccinated + boosted: 42.7%
- Vaccinated with primary series within previous 5 months: 43.6%
- Unvaccinated: 63.9%
- With an index patient ages 0-4 years old: 72%
This study has many limitations, including relatively small sample size, so these findings are not hard and fast. Additionally, it’s unwise to apply population-level statistics to individual-level circumstances. That said, the odds that you and/or your wife will experience a breakthrough infection are not in your favor.
Figure.1 in 2 household contacts developed COVID-19 during the omicron wave (CDC)
