Question: Our Governor is starting to reopen our state (Texas) on April 30th and our school decided to reopen on May 6th. Should I send my kids to school? They have detailed the precautions they plan to take, but I’m honestly not sure what the right way to go is.
Answer: This is such a hard question that many of us will soon be facing if we aren’t already. I would’t feel comfortable giving you advice as only you know your own circumstances and can make your own risk/reward calculation. What I can tell you is how I might approach this when the time comes for Maryland. And since I am a big fan of evidence-informed decision-making, I’d start with the criteria laid out in the federal government’s “Guidelines: Opening Up America Again.” We discussed these Guidelines in our Q&A of 4/19. As a reminder, before considering reopening, Governors must see these criteria met:
- A sustained downward trend in flu-like illnesses and covid-like cases over 14 days;
- A sustained downward trajectory in covid-cases OR proportion of positive tests over 14 days;
- Ability of hospitals to treat patients without crisis care; and
- Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing.
For Texas, I cannot speak to criteria 3 and 4. But we can look at data for criteria 1 and 2. For criteria 1, using data from the Texas Department of Health, Influenza Surveillance Network, we see that visits due to influenza-like illness have been declining over the course of April (Figure 1). For criteria 2, using data from covidtracking.com we see that there has been a downward trend in the proportion of positive tests since April 20th (Figure 2). If we were to expect Texas to follow the Guidelines, and *assume* that criteria 3 and 4 were met, we’d expect Texas to start Phase 1 of reopening on May 4th. Opening of schools and day care centers is NOT, however, part of Phase 1 of reopening. Rather, schools and day care centers are supposed to reopen in Phase 2 (see reopening table in Q&A of 4/19). So for Texas, this would mean that schools and day care centers would reopen only after Texas witnesses a continuing downward trend from May 4th- May 28th. This brings us to end-May as a potential date for schools/day care center reopening. If it were me, I’d be more comfortable with this type of return than the earlier return your school is offering.
Figure 1. Influenza-like illness
Figure 2. Cumulative Percent Positive Tests Began Trending Down on April 20th
