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Are there projections regarding what percentage of the US population will be vaccinated by July 4?

Question: Are there any projections regarding what percentage of the US population will be vaccinated by July 4? We are weighing pros and cons of summer travel (airline) with unvaccinated toddlers.

Answer:  Yes!  There are several projections.  And overall, things in July are looking quite promising, though still far from the 70% threshold many experts believe to be the lower-bound required to achieve herd immunity (for a reminder on herd immunity, see Q&A of 5/1/20) .  Here are three projections:

  1. New York Times, COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker: The Times offers vaccination projections that are easy to understand and read, though overly simplistic.  If vaccination rates continued at today’s pace, about 55% of Americans ages 12+ would be vaccinated by early July.  (Figure 1)    
  2. CDC’s MMWR, Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021: Using data available through end-March, this paper analyzes six different models to project through September new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths under different scenarios. Taking the “high vaccination coverage” scenarios, new weekly cases drop dramatically between late-May and early-July (Figure 2). Under the “low vaccination coverage” scenarios, new weekly cases begin dropping in early June albeit at a slower pace.  With fewer new cases, the opportunity for exposure is reduced, which means that July will likely be a safer time to travel than today. 
  3. Mayo Clinic, Vaccine Tracker: In early May, Mayo Clinic researchers projected new cases based on two “what if” scenarios– a) if no one else got vaccinated after early May and b) if 75% of the US population were immediately vaccinated– to show the relationship of vaccination to ongoing transmission.  This model does not directly answer your question, but I bring it up here because it shows that even with limited vaccination coverage (scenario a) cases do slowly fall over time; the risk is expected to be lower in July than it is today.

Figure 1. Projecting vaccination coverage (from NY Times)

Figure 2. Weekly projections of cases under different vaccination and mitigation scenarios (from CDC’s MMWR)