Question: Do you think having 6–10 thousand people coming for a march in DC is a huge COVID risk for our city and residents?
Answer: Having people descend on our city from other places — especially places with higher transmission rates — is no doubt a challenge. But given what we’ve learned from other recent protests and marches, if people keep their distance, wear masks, keep moving, and minimize shouting, the risk should be minimized. And because locals tend to modify their behavior during protest events by staying home and avoiding crowds to a greater degree, the risk is further minimized. For example, evidence on the relationship between Black Lives Matter protests and COVID transmission rates compiled and analyzed by the National Bureau of Economic Research concludes, “we find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case or death growth after more than five weeks following the onset of protests. We conclude that predictions of population-level spikes in COVID-19 cases from Black Lives Matter protests were too narrowly conceived because of failure to account for non-participants’ behavioral responses to large gatherings.”
Are public health professionals hypocrites?
I’d also like to take a moment to talk about a difference in how public health folks talk about the risks of protests/marches versus the risks of rallies. I can see how some people may think that there is political bias in the way in which public health folks seemingly support protests/marches (seen more on the political left) while seemingly rail against in-person rallies (seen more on the political right). Is this stance hypocritical? Answer: No. Unlike the protests/marches that we’ve seen throughout the summer and fall in support of Black Lives Matter, we’ve seen that in-person political rallies — while outdoors (good) — are closely packed, with limited mask wearing, lots of shouting, and limited movement (bad). Limited public health measures at rallies have resulted in increased community spread of COVID. As reported in STAT News yesterday, “Spikes in Covid-19 cases occurred in seven of the 14 cities and townships where these [Trump] rallies were held: Tulsa; Phoenix; Old Forge, Penn.; Bemidji, Minn.; Mankato, Minn.; Oshkosh, Wis.; and Weston, Wis.” (Figure 1). Upshot here is that the difference in public health discourse around protests/marches and rallies is about the difference in behaviors witnessed at such events and the risk associated with such behaviors. Public health experts express increased alarm towards rallies because they are more risky and that risk has translated into more community spread.
Do public health professionals have personal beliefs?
This may be a silly question, but two personal views often get wrapped into these discussions (enumerated below), muddying the water about public health bias. These personal views make the discussion about risk more challenging because they move the conversation outside of the sole space of science (which we generally try to keep apolitical). My paragraph above is about the evidence to date, which shows that public health professionals are not being hypocritical. I’m writing this final paragraph because I want to acknowledge that additional viewpoints often show up within the public health discourse. Yes, public health professionals, like every individual, have personal beliefs. Would public health communication aimed at bridging political divides be better if personal beliefs were left out of the discussion? Given the current context, I honestly don’t know.
- The pushback against rallies is also a push for our leaders to model and support good public health behavior.
- Most public health folks (including me) see a difference between recent protests/marches and rallies in terms of the risk/reward calculation and the hierarchy of needs. In short, because protests/marches are people peacefully gathering to actively push for justice in light of police brutality (e.g. basic needs) while rallies are people peacefully gathering to actively support a political candidate (e.g. psychological needs), the rewards of protests/marches seem more worthy of the risk.
Figure 1. Spikes in COVID Cases following Trump Rallies (from STAT News)
