Question: How are things looking in New York and elsewhere?

Answer: You’ve probably been reading about how much of the US is witnessing an upswing in COVID cases and hospitalizations. It’s been about a month since we looked at the trends, so let’s take another peek. All of the numbers I’ve written herein are 7-day rolling averages; data are from covidtracking.com. I sometimes run numbers for Texas and Kentucky, but didn’t get around to it this morning. If you want to see those, just let me know.

Figure 1. USA: It’s bad. Approaching July peaks of daily cases (55K new cases/day); hospitalizations are on the rise (36K currently hospitalized); test positivity rate is above the 5% threshold (5.3%); and daily deaths are numbering 700. The only positive I see is that testing continues to increase.

Figure 2. NYS: After months of keeping transmission rates very low, New York is seeing an increase in the spread of COVID with new daily cases (1.4K) as high as late May; number currently hospitalized (900) the highest since the beginning of July and daily deaths (10) the highest since late July. Test positivity rate (1.1%) is still low, but New York needs to act quickly to contain further spread.

Figure 3. DC: After experiencing a downward trend in cases and hospitalization, DC witnessed an uptick earlier this month that (fingers crossed) seems to be squelched.

Figure 4. Maryland: Maryland is again experiencing an uptick in cases and hospitalizations with daily new cases (600) as high as they were in mid-September and number currently hospitalized (400) as high as late-August.

Figure 5. Virginia: Virginia is also trending in the wrong direction with daily cases as high as they’ve ever been (~1,050/day) and current hospitalizations on the rise (~1000). Test positivity is above the 5% threshold (e.g. widespread community transmission not fully picked up by tests).

Figure 6. Tennessee: Perhaps worst of this set of five states+district, Tennessee’s daily cases (1.9K) are as high as early August and numbers currently hospitalized (1.2K) are as high as mid-August. Daily test numbers have been relatively stagnant and test positivity (8.2%) is as high as early August. Meanwhile, unlike the other states in this set where deaths have not (yet) risen, daily deaths in Tennessee (21) are generally trending up.

Figure 1. USA

Figure 2. NYS

Figure 3. DC

Figure 4. Maryland

Figure 5. Virginia

Figure 6. Tennessee