Question: I was surprised to learn that Maryland has not yet “peaked” with regard to the first wave of COVID infections. What’s the story?

Answer: It’s true, while Maryland has flattened its case and death curves, the state has not yet passed the initial peak. As you’ll see, cases are still increasing (Figure 1), as are the proportions of cases that are positive (Figure 2) albeit both are increasing at a slower rate. I put these two figures together to show that we can’t blame the increase in cases on the increase in tests. Paradoxically, COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun to decline (Figure 3) even while deaths have plateaued (Figure 4). Meanwhile, Maryland has had a strong social distancing response over the last 1.5 months and is currently ranked among the top 5 states for social distancing. I find this all confusing as I would have expected Maryland to be on the other side of the initial wave given how aggressive Maryland has been with social distancing. Perhaps it’s due to clusters or hot spots? For example, 20% of Maryland’s cases are from nursing homes and 49% of Maryland’s deaths are from nursing homes. Uggghhh. Meanwhile, 279 workers at a poultry plant on the Eastern Shore tested positive for COVID-19 at the beginning of the month. These types of localized clusters could very well be fueling the increase in cases. Additionally, it could be that Maryland has a number of essential employees and/or people who cannot afford to miss work, so despite the broad shutdown, there’s still communal spread. And with all this said, the true answer is: I really don’t know.

Figure 1. Cases in Maryland [data from covidtracking.com]

Figure 2. Proportion of Cases that are Positive [data from covidtracking.com]

Figure 3. Daily Total Hospitalizations [data from MD Health Department, https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/]

Figure 4. Daily Deaths from COVID-19 in Maryland [data from covidtracking.com]