Question: I heard Texas had its highest daily number of confirmed cases over the weekend. I know that Texas relaxed social distancing. Are we already seeing a second wave?

Answer: Texas did have its highest number of daily cases — 1,801 — this Saturday. But it’s important to note that this increase in cases has occurred alongside a ramp-up in testing. It’s also important to note that Texas started reopening on April 30th, which was before the state had met basic reopening criteria (see Q&A of 4/29). In my opinion, it would be inappropriate to call an increase in cases a “second wave.” Texas looks like it is still riding its first wave. To bolster that point, here are a few figures I made thanks to data from covidtracking.com. As you’ll see in the top chart, the proportion of tests that are positive had largely plateaued around 5%, and has more recently begun to decrease as Texas further expands testing. In the last week alone, Texas increased it’s testing by nearly 60% (see bottom right bar chart)! This additional testing is finding more cases and the daily number of cases in Texas continues to rise (see blue line in top chart). Texas is also seeing a modest increase in daily deaths (see chart at bottom left). Based on the testing/case data, Texas does not seem to meet the initial criteria for reopening (described in Q&A of 4/19).

Figure. Texas Tests, Cases, and Deaths