Question: I am not sure if you addressed this already but could you share your take on the Swedish example? How were they able to stay relatively open as a society? Let’s stipulate that the Swedes take their social responsibilities seriously and wear masks and social distance as they are being asked. Let’s also agree that access to medical care for everybody might be better in Sweden and that the Swedish society is overall healthier. Are there any other factors in play here? What can we learn from the Swedish experience if anything?

Answer: Sweden decided not to lock down, following the advice of its state epidemiologist, Dr. Anders Tegnell. It’s been interesting to follow the trajectory of Sweden over the months since it bucked the response of its Scandinavian neighbors and much of Europe. In my opinion, this BBC article published last week does a nice job laying out the current results of Sweden’s response.

• Sweden has one of the highest numbers of per capita deaths in the whole world, even higher than the United States and Brazil. (Figure 1)
• Sweden’s economy is contracting. According to the BBC article referenced above, “ various forecasts predict the Swedish economy will still shrink by about 5% this year. That’s less than other countries hit hard by Covid-19 such as Italy, Spain and the UK, but still similar to the rest of Scandinavia. Sweden’s unemployment rate of 9% remains the highest in the Nordics, up from 7.1% in March.”
• Sweden is still far, far from herd immunity. According to Swedish Public Health Agency research released in mid-June, about 6% of the population is known to have antibodies.
• Compared with its neighbors, Norway and Finland, both of which more aggressively responded to COVID, Sweden is faring worse in terms of health and economics.
• For trends in cases, test positivity, and deaths in Sweden and other countries, check out ourworldindata.org.

At this stage, it seems to me that the Swedish experience is a cautionary tale. That said, given the “marathon vs sprint” approach Sweden has taken, it’s possible that longer-term benefits are still to come. Even so, for those families who have already lost a loved one — the high per capita death rate means it’s a lot of families — I doubt that optimism for the future holds much weight in light of the tremendous loss.

Figure 1. Mapping Per Capita Deaths (from OurWorldinData.org)