Question: It’s been a while since we checked in on trends in COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. How are things looking in NYS and elsewhere?

Answer: It has been some time since we looked at trends. Below are charts I made using data from covidtracking.com for USA, New York State, DC, and Maryland. Here’s the upshot for each of the charts:

Figure 1. USA: Cases, hospitalizations, and test positivity are trending down since their most recent peak in late-July, which is a good thing. That said, cases are still high with a 7-day rolling average of ~41,000/day and test positivity is still high with a 7-day rolling average of 5.9%. Meanwhile, testing is still below its peak of late-July. The United States has much work to do to get the pandemic under control. And can take a lot of learning from New York(!), which is my segue to Figure 2.

Figure 2. NYS: Very impressive. Since getting the pandemic under control, New York has so far managed to prevent a second wave. This is exactly what we want to see!

Figure 3. DC: DC is looking pretty good. Test positivity is low and cases have once again fallen since they started to rise in July. That said, cases are still below their low of late-June/early-July and hospitalizations have plateaued. There’s still work to be done even in light of these successes.

Figure 4: MD: Maryland’s experience more mirrors the country’s. Like the county as a whole, testing has decreased (not good), but cases, hospitalizations, and test positivity are on the right downward trajectory. Although cases and hospitalizations are still higher than their late-June lows, test positivity is 4.5%, which is about as low as it has ever been. Clearly, there is still much work to be done, but it is nonetheless heartening to see that the end of August is looking better than its start.

Figure 1. USA

Figure 2. NYS

Figure 3. DC

Figure 4. MD