Question: Fascinating piece about the data. You’re a data person, what do you think?

Answer: You’ve shared a Medium piece written by an investment banker whose premise is that “Today we live in a nation where nearly half of all U.S. citizens deeply believe they will get the Covid virus and die. This fear is pervasive, and it is false.” If I understand his argument correctly, the idea is that: because of America’s media and social media platforms, we are a nation in fear; our fear has caused us to over-react; in our fearful overreaction, we have destroyed our economy; what we need is dispassionate review of the death data, which shows that we really shouldn’t be all that worried; and we should therefore stop lock-down or any phase thereof (ex: open indoor dining) to save our economy.

Personally, I disagree with this author’s premise and conclusions. First, even if your own personal risk of severe COVID outcomes (including death) is low, it doesn’t mean that the risk is low for everyone! Our country already has >200,000 excess deaths this year (see Q&A of 8/28 #Excess Mortality). Second, most of us fear that someone we love will be hit hard by COVID. In fact, half of Americans know someone who has been infected with COVID and 20% know someone who has died of COVID. Third, the idea of choosing one or the other — either health or economy — is a false dichotomy. If we can get the virus under control, we can fully reopen the economy (other cities/countries have done it, we can too!). We also know that if we try to fully open before we get the virus under control then we can expect to see cases rebound and deaths increase (as discussed in many previous posts, including more recently in Q&A of 9/10 and Q&A of 9/3). Finally, I’m highly skeptical of any broad-brush blaming of “the media.” Where’s the data showing that the media has caused an over-reaction? Here are a few more thoughts (note: I could write even more but am reeling it in!):

• Author’s Statement: “With the advent of 24-hour cable and social media news feeds, the infection and death count rolls on from 50,000 deaths to 150,000 and soon 200,000 — harrowing statistics bombarding Americans and inducing and reinforcing fear…”
  • Response: The author does not present any data on the influence of “the media” and stoking COVID fear. Yes, we have many issues with American media, but making sweeping statements to support your given point of view is not evidence-informed or helpful. It’s also an unfair portrait of Americans. Axios-Ipsos polling found that as of early August, 50% of Americans know someone who has contracted COVID and 20% of Americans know someone who has died of COVID. As of late-June a Washington-Ipsos poll found that 31% of Black Americans report knowing someone who has died of COVID. Blaming media for fear when so many of us have direct experience discounts our lived reality.
• Author’s Statement: “Nearly half of all U.S. citizens deeply believe they will get the Covid virus and die.”
  • Response: I have not seen any data point that aligns with this statement. Even the statistics the author shares in his post do not directly support his statement — “Polling by Gallup indicates approximately 45% of Americans are “very worried” or “Somewhat worried,” they will contract Covid. Pew Research reveals 51% of adults having “high” or “medium” psychological distress from their fear of Covid. The American Psychiatric Association’s research indicates that 40% of Americans believe they could become seriously ill and die from Covid.” Being worried, having some distress, and believing that you could become seriously ill and die from COVID are not equivalent to believing you will become seriously ill and die. The author cites American Psychiatric Association’s research, which also found that “far more Americans (62%) are anxious about the possibility of family and loved ones getting coronavirus.” If we want to talk about fear, this is the fear we should talk about.
• Author’s Statement: “We call this the ‘Data-Fear Gap,’ and it is reinforced by a relentless media barrage supporting fear-based policy reactions having far-reaching and long-lasting consequences more deadly than the virus itself on both people and our economy.”
  • Response: The author does not describe in detail what “fear-based policy reactions” he is referring to, but he does mention earlier in the post that “Calls are loud to test universally, lockdown every business, close colleges, stadiums, and arenas, mandate masks even outdoors, and undertake a new Manhattan Project to find the vaccine.” Aside from locking down every business (which is hyperbole), I’d argue that the other policy reactions are evidence-based. We know that the virus more easily spreads in high congregant settings, including arenas and stadiums. We know that masks are highly protective, and we also want to support mask wearing broadly so it becomes the social norm.
• Author’s Statement: “The empty storefronts in New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, and an increasing number of major cities will remain vacant until irrational fear is replaced with commerce.”
  • Response: It’s not the fear that has destroyed our economy. It’s our ineffective response to the virus. If we can get the virus contained so that we stop community transmission, we can reopen the economy. This has been done elsewhere and it can be done here!
• Author’s Statement: “Data on who is infected, who becomes ill, and who has died from Covid isn’t subject to many questions; it is objective, available and knowable data.”
  • Response: I wish data were this available and knowable. Even now we still don’t have race data for half of cases. We’re still having issues with hospitalization data completeness, making statistics like hospitalization rate more challenging to reliably compute. Another wrinkle here is that because we’re dealing with a new virus, we don’t know its long-term impacts. There is much that is still unknown, and much more work to be done to ensure data availability and completeness. Important caveat — the US does have a strong civil and vital registration system (see Q&A of 5/5 #Counting Deaths).
• Author’s Statement: “Until the 40% of Americans who currently believe Covid19 will kill them become informed that this is an exceedingly remote risk (again, the math is .01%), there will be a very tepid American recovery. The misery and deaths from that Data-Fear Gap are owned by America’s media and social media platforms, which could be a far more deadly affliction than the Coronavirus itself.”
  • Response: Disagree with this premise and the “risk” math is overly simplistic and incorrect. The number of COVID deaths we experience will be proportional to our actions. There’s no “set number.” Just as there is no set “risk” — it depends on your own underlying health + your exposure + the healthcare you’re provided with. That said, as discussed in previous posts (more recently in Q&A of 9/17 #Children) it’s important to remember that deaths among young people are rare. Additionally, the current case fatality rate in the U.S. is on the decline at 2.9% (calculated using data from covidtracking.com).