Note: I’m going to be away from the Q&A for a few days.  Back at it on 11/02.  As always, send me questions if you have them.

Question: Are scientists predicting that COVID cases continue to decline in the US or should we expect a winter surge?

Answer: Short answer: A winter surge is looking unlikely, but none of us has a crystal ball. Longer answer: In the immediate term (e.g. next 4 weeks), modelers forecast that cases in the US will continue to decline, reaching about 389,00 cases/week (e.g. 55,000 cases/day) in mid-November (Figure 1). For context, the US is currently experiencing approximately 66,000 cases/day.  In the longer term (e.g. next 6 months), modelers project that cases will continue to decline through early January (Figure 2).  If no new variant spreads, modelers project that cases will continue to decline during the entire projection period (see top row of Figure 2).  On the other hand, if a new variant does spread, modelers project that cases could once again rise beginning in mid-January (bottom row), but that the rate of such rise will be tempered if children are vaccinated (bottom row, left box).  For more background and insight into these forecasts and projections, see our Q&A of 7/28/21.

Figure 1. Ensemble forecast for cases in the US through mid-November (from CDC)

Figure 2. Ensemble Projections Based on Four Scenarios (from COVID19Scenario Modeling Hub, 9/14 update)