Question: I’m hearing conflicting information about the severity of COVID from Delta vs previous variants in children. Can you illuminate me with the latest studies?

Answer: You’re hearing conflicting information because we really don’t have a solid handle yet on whether Delta is more severe in children.  Personally, I think it’s the uncertainty that makes parenting all the more challenging these days.  Here are a few things that we do know:  

• Delta is far more transmissible than previous variants (potentially as transmissible as chickenpox, Figure 1), which means that if an unvaccinated child is exposed to Delta, they are more likely to contract it.  
• When it comes to hospitalizations, there is limited evidence– not specific to children– that Delta may be associated with increased hospital admissions (see: study from Scotland, study from England), however this evidence is quite weak and not enough to draw conclusions (Figure 2).  
• Vaccines remain extremely effective at reducing the risk of infection and preventing severe outcomes.  With children under age 12 (14.5% of the US population) not yet eligible for vaccination, we have a large population at risk of infection.  Additionally, many children ages 12-17 remain unvaccinated despite the protection it affords.  The American Academy of Pediatrics reports, as of July 28th, “in 4 states, over 60% of children (age 12-17) have received at least 1 dose, and in 14 states, 30% or fewer have received 1 dose.”
• Children can get long COVID too, but we still don’t know how frequently it occurs, how severe it is, and whether the Delta variant would influence long COVID incidence/experience.
• Cases are increasing across the country, including in children (Figure 3), but COVID hospitalization rates among children are much lower than the general population and COVID deaths among children are relatively rare– 0.1% of all deaths reported to CDC (526 deaths of 503,506 total deaths)– and tragic.    

Figure 1. Delta Variant as Transmissible as Chicken Pox (from NY Times, based on CDC internal report)

Figure 2. July 8 Delta Variant Risk Assessment (from Public Health England)

Figure 3. Trends in Cases among children in the US (from American Academy of Pediatrics)