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Are we at a point where you’d be avoiding restaurants, masking up again?

Question: What’s your take on the risks in our area (MoCo/PG Maryland)?  Are we at a point where you’d be avoiding restaurants and masking up in public again?

Answer: For our area, I do *not* think we are at the point of avoiding restaurants and masking up all the time.  The risk of breakthrough infection is low.  That said, I still recommend masking up in indoor, crowded settings (because it’s easy, effective, and why not!?).  According to CDC’s COVID Data Tracker, most of Maryland, including Montgomery County (MoCo) and Prince George’s County (PG), is at “moderate” levels of community transmission.  If that shifts to “substantial” or “high” levels of community transmission, I’d begin personally reinstating more public health behaviors (like outdoor restaurant dining rather than indoor restaurant dining, masking up when entering stores, etc.).  Even so, my behavior wouldn’t shift to that of pre-vaccination/high transmission times when I was mainly staying home; I’m vaccinated now and the vaccines offer so much protection!  If you’re interested in trends in other areas of the country, or a more in-depth state overview, check out the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker and HHS’s COVID-19 Weekly State Profile Reports. Here are a few area stats/trends (Figure): 

Cases have been increasing in both counties.

  • MoCo: 185 new cases in the last 7 days, which is equivalent to 17.6 cases per 100,000, a 103% increase from the week before.
  • PG: 268 new cases in the last 7 days, which is equivalent to 29.5 cases per 100,000, a 127% increase from teh week before.

Test positivity remains low in both counties.

  • MoCo: Over the last week, an average of 1.6%  of tests have been positive, virtually no change from the week before.
  • PG: Over the last week, an average of 2.2% of tests have been positive, virtually no change from the week before.

Hospital admissions have been declining in MoCo, slowly rising in PG.

  • MoCo: 14 new hospitalizations in the last 7 days, which is equivalent to 1.1 per 100 beds  a 22% decrease from the week before.
  • PG: 29 new hospitalizations in the last 7 days, which is equivalent to 3.1 per 100 beds, a 3.6% increase from the week before.

Vaccination rates are very high in MoCo and somewhat high in PG.

  • MoCo: 90.5% of the population ages 12+ has received at least one vaccine dose and 82.5% are fully vaccinated.   
  • PG: 70% of the population ages 12+ has received at least one vaccine dose and 62% are fully vaccinated. 

Figure. Maryland Trends (from State Profile Report)