Note: I will be traveling this Saturday and Sunday, so no Q&A. Keep sending your questions and I’ll be back at it again on Monday!

Question: What is the death rate by age in the United States?

Answer:Figure 1 and Table 1 show the cumulative case fatality rate (CFR) in the United States by age based on CDC data on cases by age and deaths by age. What I’m presenting below is cumulative (e.g. since the pandemic began) and we know that CFR has declined over time, so the rates in the below table/chart are higher than what the current CFR estimate would be. Still, they show the enormous age gradient. Some of this gradient could very well be based on which age groups are most likely to get tested. For example, one might suspect that most people ages 85+ are likely to get tested if they have symptoms whereas someone in their 30s may be more likely to be tested on a regular basis as part of their work or as a check-up. I bring this up to say that while CFR differences by age are a reflection of greater mortality risk among older Americans, they are also a reflection of who is getting tested. If only sick people get tested, CFR will become inflated — sick people are more likely to have more severe outcomes, like death. If you’re interested in comparing these numbers with totals from other countries, check out ourworldindata. This article in Nature also gives a nice overview, and this article from the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine shows how age-specific CFR has greatly declined over time in Germany.

Figure 1. Cumulative Age-specific CFR in the USA

Table 1. Cumulative age-specific case fatality rates (ratios) in the United States