Question: Tennessee’s governor has declared pandemic over, no longer “crisis.” Even Nashville’s board of health says they will drop all restrictions except masks come May 14. Neither of them cites numbers to back up their decisions. What are the numbers, and what do they actually show?

Answer:  I’ll first provide an overview of the numbers.  As you can see in Figure 1, Tennessee is on a slight downward trend in terms of cases and hospitalizations with an average of 947 cases/day and an average of 736 Tennesseans currently hospitalized.  Deaths have slightly increased with an average of 8 deaths/day.   Meanwhile, daily testing remains relatively low (averaging 10,120 tests/day), especially compared with earlier in the pandemic (ex: daily testing averaged 20,000+ in the Fall), and especially considering that test positivity is high (9%).  Tennessee’s vaccination coverage falls below the current national average: TN: 34% given at least one dose; 24% full vaccinated; US: 43% given at least one dose; 30% fully vaccinated.  And, as mentioned yesterday, the more contagious and severe B.1.1.7 variant is the dominant strain in Tennessee.  Finally, as Figure 2 shows, current exposure risk levels by county range from high to extremely high.  

All this to say that things are generally looking better in Tennessee, but widespread community transmission is still occurring.  Vaccination coverage is increasing, but has a far way to go.  The B.1.1.7 variant is circulating, and people are still being hospitalized and dying.  Things are better, but they are not yet okay.  The pandemic is not yet over, as much as we wish it were.  In this context, if I were in charge, I would ease restrictions (rather than fully lift them) while also increasing testing, tracing, and vaccination outreach.  

Figure 1. Tennessee COVID Trends (from NY Times)
Note: All averages discussed/presented are over the last seven days.  

Figure 2. Exposure Risk Levels by County (from NY Times)