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How do COVID deaths compare with deaths from other causes?

Question: How do COVID deaths compare with deaths from other causes?

Answer: We’ve talked quite a bit about this in previous posts (see Q&A of 11/2 among other posts), but we now have a better read of mortality in 2020; just yesterday, CDC’s MMWR published two related papers (here and here) while JAMA published one viewpoint, The Leading Causes of Death in the US for 2020.  Here are a few main findings from these three analyses:

  • Provisional death estimates show that “The age-adjusted death rate increased by 15.9% in 2020. Overall death rates were highest among non-Hispanic Black persons and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons. COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death, and the COVID-19 death rate was highest among Hispanics.” (from CDC’s MMWR) (Figure 1)
  • A review of death certificates shows that deaths have been properly attributed to COVID-19; they are not being overestimated as some people have posited.  Study authors state, “…in 97% of 357,133 death certificates with COVID-19 and at least one other diagnosis, the documented chain-of-event and significant contributing conditions were consistent with those reported in clinical and epidemiologic studies to occur among patients with severe COVID-19–associated outcomes.” (from CDC’s MMWR)
  • Trends in leading causes of death during 2020 showed “Substantial increases from 2019 to 2020 also occurred for several other leading causes. Heart disease deaths increased by 4.8%, the largest increase in heart disease deaths since 2012. Increases in deaths also occurred for unintentional injury (11.1%), Alzheimer disease (9.8%), and diabetes (15.4%). Influenza and pneumonia deaths in 2020 increased by 7.5%, although the number of deaths was lower in 2020 than in 2017 and 2018. From 2019 to 2020, deaths due to chronic lower respiratory disease declined by 3.4% and suicide deaths declined by 5.6%.” (from JAMA) (Table 1)

Figure 1. COVID-19 was the 3rd leading cause of death in the US in 2020 (from CDC)

Table 1. Trends in leading cause of death (from JAMA)