Question:  At the House Commerce Committee hearing last week, the President of Pfizer said they intended to ramp up production with an additional 140 million vaccines in the next five weeks.  By my math (and I’m a lawyer, not a mathematician), that is an additional 4 million vaccines a day!  Considering we’ve averaged under 1.5 million vaccines a day, that number seems really high.  Why is this not bigger news?  Is their statement credible?

Answer: Thanks for raising this question, which prompted me to read through the written testimonies shared at last week’s House Energy and Commerce hearing.  I’ve provided a few highlights from the testimonies in the below bullets.  I have seen this ramp-up discussed in some news outlets (e.g. CBS, Washington Post, Axios, Biopharm), though it hasn’t been front-page news.  Among other reasons, I suspect it’s not making bigger waves because: a) people will believe it when they see it; b) people are already expecting vaccine production to ramp-up; and c) increasing the number of doses manufactured is necessary but not sufficient for increasing the pace of vaccines administered.  As President Biden said when he toured Pfizer’s vaccine facility last month, “It’s one thing to have the vaccine, and it’s very different to get it in someone’s arms.”  With this in mind, the Administration is working to overcome vaccine hesitancy and increase demand for vaccines while also supporting expanded access to vaccines through pharmacies, community health centers, mass vaccination sites, and more.  According to MarketWatch, the National Association of Chain Drug Stores estimates its members alone have the capability to deliver >3 million doses/day.  And as you’ll see in the bullets below, the US should be flush with doses very soon!    

Hearing Highlights (bold font is mine) [I’ve only included bullets for the three vaccines that have FDA authorization. You can find testimonies for Novovax and AstraZeneca here and here]

• John Young, Chief Business Officer, Pfizer: “We expect to increase the number of doses we make available for shipment from approximately 4 to 5 million doses per week at the beginning of February to more than 13 million doses per week by the middle of March. We are on track to make 120 million doses available for shipment by the end of March and an additional 80 million doses by the end of May. And, we anticipate all 300 million contracted doses will be made available for shipment by the end of July, enabling the vaccination of up to 150 million Americans…. This is possible because Pfizer has made significant investments in our U.S. manufacturing sites…”
• Dr. Stephen Hoge, President, Moderna: “We are on track to meet our commitment to deliver 100 million doses by the end of March. We have doubled our monthly deliveries since late 2020, and we are aiming to double them again by April to more than 40 million doses per month. Based on this progress scaling up manufacturing, we recently agreed to move up our delivery timeline: we now are aiming to deliver a second hundred million doses by the end of May and a third hundred million doses by the end of July… We are able to accelerate these delivery timelines—while maintaining a robust commitment to safety and quality—thanks to the highly-skilled and experienced workers at our Massachusetts facility, our raw material suppliers, our contract manufacturing partner Lonza, and our fill-finish contractor Catalent… we are pursuing a plan that may allow up to 15 doses to be drawn from each vial. This will allow us to produce and deliver more doses more quickly.”
• Dr. Richard Nettles, Vice President of U.S. Medical Affairs, Johnson & Johnson: .”.our plan is to begin shipping immediately upon emergency use authorization, and deliver enough single-doses by the end of March to enable the vaccination of more than 20 million Americans. We are confident in our plans to deliver 100 million single-dose vaccines to the United States during the first half of 2021… Our goal is to have seven COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing sites active by midyear.”