Question: I read today that the US surpassed 4,000 daily deaths yesterday.  Would you please share updated trends for the USA, New York, and other states you usually show?

Answer: Yesterday’s death count represents yet another grim milestone (a sad phrase surprisingly missing from the 2021 banished words list). Here are charts for the USA, New York, DC, and states folks have asked about in the past– Maryland, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Texas.  If you want to see charts for another state, let me know.  I made these figures using data from The COVID Tracking Project.  A few highlights: 

1. Across the country, we experienced 23,119 deaths in the last week alone.  That’s more deaths in one week due to COVID than the entire number of deaths from the 2019-2020 flu season (22,000 influenza deaths; range: 18,000-29,000, CDC preliminary estimates).  
2. No state has been spared.  As you’ll see in these charts, cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and test positivity are high and increasing.
3. Testing seems to have stagnated over the last month across the country.  
4. Meanwhile, test positivity is as high as 20% in Tennessee and Texas.  It’s quite high in many other states as well (though not that high).  This indicates that testing has not kept pace with community spread.  We have more cases than we are currently capturing through testing. 
5. Because of these trends, we can and should expect hospitalizations and deaths to continue to increase.  Things will continue to get worse before they get better.  Expect more grim milestones.  That said, the actions we take can curb community spread.  PLEASE do your part– wear your mask, wash your hands, keep 6+ feet apart, avoid crowds, closed spaces, and crowded places.  And when it’s your turn, please get your vaccine.