Question: Please run the numbers for Texas! And Kentucky!

Answer: Sure thing! Here are charts for Texas and Kentucky that I made using data from covidtracking.com. All of the numbers I am mentioning are 7-day rolling averages.

Texas. Daily tests have plateaued around 60,000 tests/day since early September. Meanwhile, test positivity has remained stubbornly high (currently 7.1%), which indicates that testing is not keeping pace with community spread. Daily cases are again on the rise (4,364 cases/day), as are current hospitalizations (4,216 hospitalized). Daily deaths have been on the decline since their peak in early August, but with hospitalizations again on the rise, we can expect to see deaths reverse course in the coming weeks.

Kentucky. Daily tests have been increasing over time (19,000 tests/day), as have cases (1,045/day), hospitalizations (709 currently hospitalized), and deaths (10/day). The increase in cases is not simply a result of increased testing; test positivity is also high and on the rise (5.2%) and hospitalizations have been increasing. Kentucky is currently experiencing the highest daily rates of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths since the pandemic began.

Figure 1. Texas

Figure 2. Kentucky