{"id":1738,"date":"2021-12-15T08:06:13","date_gmt":"2021-12-15T13:06:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/?p=1738"},"modified":"2021-12-15T08:06:13","modified_gmt":"2021-12-15T13:06:13","slug":"my-friend-just-tested-positive-what-are-the-odds-its-omicron","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/?p=1738","title":{"rendered":"My friend just tested positive.\u00a0 What are the odds it&#8217;s Omicron?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: I am pausing the Q&amp;A for the holidays, and will aim to resume on January 4th.\u00a0 In the meantime, if you have questions, continue to send them along.\u00a0 I wish you a happy, healthy, and joyous\u00a0holiday season.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Question:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0My friend just tested positive for COVID.\u00a0 What are the odds it&#8217;s Omicron?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>Answer:<\/u>\u00a0<\/strong>I hope your friend has a speedy recovery.\u00a0 The odds that the infection is due to the Omicron variant are low, and will greatly depend on where your friend lives.\u00a0 According to <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#variant-proportions\">CDC&#8217;s Nowcast model<\/a>, as of December 11th, only 2.9% (95% CI: 0.2%-14.7%) of circulating variants were Omicron, but this is a big jump from the previous week when it was just 0.4%.\u00a0 We&#8217;re finding that Omicron is spreading quickly; it already represents 13% of circulating variants in New York and New Jersey (<strong>Figure 1<\/strong>).\u00a0 Just yesterday, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/2021\/12\/14\/omicron-us-spread\/\">Washington Post reported<\/a> that federal officials are warning\u00a0that Omicron&#8217;s spread &#8220;could peak in a massive wave of infections as soon as January.&#8221;\u00a0 To reiterate, the odds are that your friend is infected with the Delta variant, but as time progresses, we are seeing more and more infections in the US being driven by Omicron.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Figure 1. Circulating Variants, trends and geography <\/strong>(from <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#variant-proportions\">CDC<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"944\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/covidqanda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/image-8.png?resize=723%2C944&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1739\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/covidqanda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/image-8.png?resize=784%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 784w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/covidqanda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/image-8.png?resize=230%2C300&amp;ssl=1 230w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/covidqanda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/image-8.png?resize=768%2C1003&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/covidqanda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/image-8.png?w=1047&amp;ssl=1 1047w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Note: I am pausing the Q&amp;A for the holidays, and will aim to resume on January 4th.\u00a0 In the meantime, if you have questions, continue to send them along.\u00a0 I wish you a happy, healthy, and joyous\u00a0holiday season. Question:\u00a0My friend just tested positive for COVID.\u00a0 What are the odds it&#8217;s Omicron? Answer:\u00a0I hope your friend [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[47,46],"tags":[251],"class_list":["post-1738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-states","category-trends","tag-omicron","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1738","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1738"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1738\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1740,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1738\/revisions\/1740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1738"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1738"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1738"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}