{"id":1661,"date":"2021-10-27T07:59:28","date_gmt":"2021-10-27T11:59:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/?p=1661"},"modified":"2021-10-27T07:59:28","modified_gmt":"2021-10-27T11:59:28","slug":"should-we-expect-a-winter-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/?p=1661","title":{"rendered":"Should we expect a winter surge?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Note: I’m going to be away from the Q&A for a few days.\u00a0 Back at it on 11\/02.\u00a0 As always, send me questions if you have them.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Question:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Are scientists predicting that COVID cases continue\u00a0to decline in the US or should we expect a winter surge?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Answer:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Short answer: A winter surge is looking unlikely, but none of us has a crystal ball. Longer answer: In the immediate term (e.g. next 4 weeks), modelers forecast<\/a>\u00a0that cases in the US will continue to decline, reaching about 389,00 cases\/week (e.g. 55,000 cases\/day) in mid-November (Figure 1<\/strong>). For context, the US is currently experiencing<\/a>\u00a0approximately 66,000 cases\/day.\u00a0 In the longer term (e.g. next 6 months), modelers project<\/a> that cases will continue to decline through early January (Figure 2<\/strong>).\u00a0 If no new variant spreads, modelers project that cases will continue to decline during the entire projection period (see top row of Figure 2).\u00a0 On the other hand, if a new variant does spread, modelers project that cases could once again rise beginning in mid-January (bottom row), but that the rate of such rise will be tempered if children are vaccinated (bottom row, left box).\u00a0 For more background and insight into these forecasts and projections, see our Q&A of 7\/28\/21<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1. Ensemble forecast\u00a0for cases in the US through mid-November <\/strong>(from CDC<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2. Ensemble Projections Based on Four Scenarios\u00a0<\/strong>(from\u00a0COVID19Scenario Modeling Hub<\/a>, 9\/14 update)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Note: I’m going to be away from the Q&A for a few days.\u00a0 Back at it on 11\/02.\u00a0 As always, send me questions if you have them. Question:\u00a0Are scientists predicting that COVID cases continue\u00a0to decline in the US or should we expect a winter surge? Answer:\u00a0Short answer: A winter surge is looking unlikely, but none […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1663,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[93,46],"tags":[244,243],"class_list":["post-1661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-models","category-trends","tag-forecasts","tag-projections","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/covidqanda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/image-12.png?fit=694%2C720&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1661"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1661\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1664,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1661\/revisions\/1664"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1663"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covidqanda.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}